Thursday, August 29, 2013

Jobs, Jobs, and Jobs

There was a web article today about a fast food worker strike.  There have been a couple of those stories over the last few months, and maybe it is time to explore this story here. 

Fast food has been notoriously minimum wage in its pay structure.  This goes back to the very beginning of the category.  But why is that?  Obviously, a family cannot live comfortably at minimum wage, but that was never the intent.  Back in the 1930s, 40s, and 50s, we had soda jerks.  These were primarily high schoolers who were saving to buy a car, or other thing that was important to them.  The wage rate was at the bottom of the heap because how much skill does it take to do the job?  But generally the kids were happy, since they were gaining independence, and the parents were happy, because their children were learning a life lesson.

After High School, these kids would go to college, or perhaps get a job in a plant in town.  This was just a bridge from childhood to adulthood.  The same is true in grocery stores where baggers were employed at minimum wage, or theater ushers.  There were many things requiring little skill that kids could do.  There were very few, if any, that expected to do that job for the rest of their lives.  In our town, we had Steak and Shake restaurants that employed a great many teens.  There were ice cream places that were only open in the summer, a great place to make spending money.

Fast forward to today.  When you go in to a fast food place, have you noticed how many non teens are working there today?  It is no longer just a teen job, but rather many different age groups find themselves in that job.  The primary reason for this is we, as a nation, have lost a lot of manufacturing jobs to lower wage nations.  Places like China, India, Mexico, and others have grabbed these jobs off our shore.  This is where our economic system seems to be failing us.  We have the additional pressure of immigrants, both legal and illegal taking jobs that can't move.  After all, it would be hard to package a Big Mac in China, and have it show up on the tray hot and juicy.  When was the last time you saw a shoe that was made in the USA?  Or cell phone, or computer, or even a faucet?

Not everyone can be a CEO.  Not everyone can be even middle management.  There has to be good paying alternatives to those that can't be.  We used to build a lot of cars, with good wages paid, but how many shuttered plants are there.  My grandfather made shoes.  My dad was a printer.  It would be hard to have those jobs today.  The gap in our economy is those mid level pay jobs primarily in manufacturing. 

Before you say, but China has lower wages, we can't compete, let me say that I don't believe that.  Yes their wages are much lower, but their transportation costs are much higher.  So why are these jobs leaving?  And what can we do to get them back?

Some of it is government interference.  When a cell phone company makes a phone in China, they pay Chinese workers, they buy Chinese raw materials.  Then they sell those phones to companies in the US.  What those companies pay goes as a cost of business.  With those dollars going to China.  The factory there has made a profit, and paid their Chinese taxes.  When the company sells the phone, they profit and pay US taxes.  The problem is vertically integrated companies like Apple or GE.  These multinational corporations use their presence in different countries to minimize the taxes they pay.  As long as they leave the money in China, there is no US tax liability.  So those profits go to build more plants there, rather than coming home to the US.

The US has one of the largest tax burdens, especially compared to developing countries like China.  It benefits them to grow their business away from the IRS.  And yet the calls come to tax the rich, especially the corporations.  They are demonized for not paying tax.  Yet, have you ever not taken a deduction you were entitled to?  Why should they be any different?  It's only fair.  Where these companies make money is the lower tax rate in other places, not because those places have lower wages.  And they are encouraged by the tax code to leave it there, instead of bringing it back and using it to build domestic operations.

We need to level the playing field.  Once we do that, jobs will stop leaving.  Then we need to find ways to draw the lost jobs back.  I remember grandpa telling of the hard work done making shoes.  The factories were hot, the job was physical.  But for many, that is where their skills are.  They would not make good salesmen, or executives, engineers, computer programmers, doctors, lawyers, or even teachers, but they make a heck of a widget, and can be proud of that.  Unfortunately, these are the jobs we are losing.

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There are two things that will bring these jobs back.  First sanity in Washington, and a realization that our tax code is the problem.  Second, a concerted effort by consumers to reward those companies that produce here by spending their money with them.  A few years ago we needed a new faucet in our bathroom.  I went to a big box hardware store.  I noticed some big American brands were made over seas, primarily China.  Now these companies will tell you that the design is done here.  Perhaps their customer service line is here as well.  As I looked, I found two that were made here.  American Standard, and Moen, although Moen said they were made here of domestic and foreign parts.  I made a decision to buy Moen.  When I got home, I even sent an email thanking them for building my faucet here.

When companies find out that we are looking at where their goods are made, and giving preferential treatment to those made here, which will by economic law force down the prices of imports to a point where it will make sense to build them here, or cheapen the materials there, further eroding their brand.  The choice will be made for them.

The people are a massive force.  Governments can fall to the people.  Companies can go out of business by the people.  We need to use our people power to reinvent the manufacturing sector of our economy, then Fast Food can go back to what they do best, employ teens for spending money.

Spend Wisely!

Monday, August 19, 2013

War, Economics, and the Middle East

It concerns me watching the news from Egypt.  So many lives lost, so much suffering.  War is never a good thing.  As I watched the coverage, I remembered something a professor said once:  "All wars are over economic reasons."  As time passes, I have tried to disprove this theory.  I can't seem to do that.  Let's follow some examples, from American History.

The Revolutionary War.
We fought for our freedom, right?  Isn't that what we were told?  Yet if you dig in to the times, most of the rebels came to be because the King was trying to tax the colonies to pay for their protection.  The Stamp Act, Tea Taxes leading to the Boston Tea Party, are all examples of what they considered unfair taxes.  This led to rebellion, and the creation of our country.

The War of 1812.
This was more or less a continuation of the Revolutionary War, the British were trying to take back the wayward colonies, because of the value.

The Civil War.
Was fought for States Rights, with slavery as a major component of that battle.  The Emancipation Proclamation was an economic document.  It was intended to cause economic harm to the South.  The South needed, so they thought, slavery to run their economic system. 

World War II.
While we said we were fighting Fascist tyranny, this war was about economics as well.  Without Europe to sell our goods to, we would never get out of the Depression.  The Nazis came to power because of draconian reparations imposed after World War I.


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The same is true today in the Mid East.  It is a war over economics.  The Sheiks and Sultans, or the Islamists are in control of one of the biggest assets in the world today, oil.  They are not allowing their people to prosper, yet they are building large palaces, and other buildings.  The rebels want a cut.  This war can never end unless there is a more equitable distribution of assets.  This distribution occurs with freedom.  None of the sides, currently, seem to favor freedom.  In Egypt, Mubarak was a tyrant, free elections brought us Morsi, who seemed to be intent on turning Egypt into a religious country with him, and his friends as the major benefactors. 

So as outsiders what can we do?  We can try to contain the problem to that region.  Or we can work for a permanent solution, and that solution has nothing to do with Israel.  The main reason that the Arab states have targeted them is not religious, well maybe a small bit, but rather economic.  Israel has been an example of democratically elected leaders, that has thrived economically.  The Saudi King, the Iranian President cannot allow that to be seen in their backyard.

If we proactively make that asset worth less, then maybe cooler heads will prevail.  We can accomplish this in a couple ways.  We can find alternate sources of energy.  That means using our natural gas reserves, developing solar, wind, and nuclear options, and, of course, drilling in other areas where there is petroleum.   This might also bring down the price of energy, and be less enriching to those that are our problems anywhere in the world.  Without Petrol Dollars, Iran's nuclear program will stall.  Venezuela's hard core anti Americanism would subside. 

In our country alone, we have the resources to do this, but imagine if all countries would join, maybe peace can come to the region.  Arab countries would have to diversify, and reasonable people will find reasonable ways to live there.  Not only live, but coexist with Israel.   It's no secret as to the Egyptian / Israeli peace accord, both had diversified economies with people to some degree able to direct their own destinies.  Is that true in Iraq, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan or any other oil country of the region?  Think about it!

Spend Wisely!

Sunday, August 11, 2013

Economics and History and Housing

There was a story this week.  It involved housing.  Housing may have been the leading reason for the recession in 2008, that we still feel the effects of in 2013.  There is a quote:  "Those who ignore history are bound (or doomed) to repeat it".  In 2008, we were at the end of the housing bubble, and when that bubble burst, it took down the entire economy.

What was the housing bubble?  In a nut shell, it was a run up in house prices that became unsustainable.  In the early 1950s, my grandparents built their first house.  It was a simple Cape Cod style post war house in the suburbs.  It was under 1000 square feet in size.  It cost them around $3000 to build this house.  In the early 1980s when my last grandparent died, we bought the house from the estate.  It appraised at just under $60,000. roughly doubling every seven years in value.  We owned the house until 2005, when we sold it the price was over $200,000, doubling in about every 4.5 years.  Meaning inflation in housing doubled over the previous period.  How did the market get out of whack?

Over the last 20 to 30 years there has been a push to make home ownership, some say a major part of the American Dream, a reality for as many people as possible.  Neighborhood organizers, the President, and Congress pushed for relaxed loan requirements.  It was an attempt, and probably with good intentions, to help marginal families finally own their own home.  The problem was with more buyers in the market, prices went up.  As prices went up, the move was to lessen the requirements even more.  When I was rather young, possibly in the early 1970s, I remember hearing a "rule of thumb" that said you should not spent more then 25% of your take home pay on housing.  By the time the bubble burst, that rule was out the window.  People were spending as much as 45% on housing, meaning any little blip could cause insolvency.

In 2007 and 2008, globally there was a downturn in productivity.  That blip caused the very marginal to go in to default on their mortgages.  From there it snowballed as the economic conditions worsened to a major loss in property values.  With property values down, those who were meeting their mortgage could not sell, they were upside down.  Housing stopped selling.  Interest rates did fall as a result, but being upside down precluded owners from taking advantage of the lower rates.  As unemployment rose more people fell in to default, and a banking crisis was upon us.


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Big banks bought smaller competitors, and we lost competition as a result.  The top 5 banks today control almost 40% of the market.  As late as the 1990s, in our town, not one of those banks had a branch.  Now they all do.  Bank of America owns the assets of the formerly largest bank in the state, and US Bank the second largest.  This took most lending decisions away from local people.  Which will contribute to the next crisis.

So what did I read that set me off?  Didn't you see something about history?  Yes you did.  In a total disregard, or maybe lack of understanding, President Obama last week called for loosening of lending regulations.  It is noble to yearn for ownership of a house, in many parts of the world it is near impossible to impossible to imagine owning land.  That ownership is enhanced when it isn't easy.  When there is a major investment of sweat and nerves, the payoff is much sweeter.  When was the last time you went to a mortgage burning party?

Government intervention in the housing market has pushed up prices, in the past, many people owned their house free and clear by retirement.  Now reverse mortgages are all the fad.  Government loves rising housing prices, as it increases property taxes.  They are not in it to help people achieve their dream, just to take more money.  If our President achieves the goals he stated, there will be another housing crisis.

None of this is to say ignore your dream.  Just understand the costs.  Research what you need for ownership.  Minimize the amount you borrow, either through a larger down payment or smaller house.  Work towards paying any loans as quickly as possible, so the next bubble doesn't burst in your house.  And as we like to say...

Spend Wisely!