Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Unemployment and Labor Participation

Here's the good news:  Unemployment dropped by 0.1% in a recent report.  The economy added 88,000 jobs.  Seems like it's a good start!  And as mentioned before, it is important to accentuate the positive.  So, I'm sorry dear reader, I must break my own ideal.  The bad news?  A half million people gave up on ever finding a job, and left the labor market.  Labor participation dropped to 67%.  That means 33% (almost one third) of all able bodied people in this country are not actively seeking employment.

Now to be fair, some of that is because they are stay at home parents, or just won the lottery.  But it is not believable that one third of the workforce just won the lottery.  There was a time when a much simpler number was used, and some say more accurate.  The unemployment rate is those able to work compared to the number of workers.  However, back in the 1970's, it was discovered that government could lie, and no one seemed to care.  So today the unemployment rate is those able bodied people minus Those not actively seeking employment then comparing that number ( a much lower ratio) to those employed and then we must seasonally adjust the number. 

Think of the number 500,000 people gave up on finding a job.  Now they don't have unemployment payments.  They are living off the largess of the state.  Drawing food stamps, oh sorry, SNAP benefits.  And other welfare benefits they may qualify for.  Any wonder why we have a deficit problem?

When my children left home, my expenses dropped significantly.  My electric bill lowered, even with increasing rates.  My gas bill lowered.  Food expenses lowered.  They accounted for roughly 1/3 of my household.  Some expenses went down more the 1/3, others were right at that level.  Let's assume for a minute that we could reduce the Federal budget by 1/3, just by getting people to work.  Wat would that do to deficits?  And, lets say, even at current tax rates, taxes collected went up by 1/3.  What would these two things do for our budget? 

The detractors will say that neither of those are achievable.  Perhaps.  But even lesser numbers would help.  1/6th drop in government expenses would make things much easier to handle.  Couple that with a massive effort to weed out waste, and you would have a similar result.  How can we weed out waste?

Why not pay government managers as the private sector does?  Performance bonuses would encourage them to be as productive as possible.  Their income would depend on it.  In an earlier time in my career, I took the civil service exam, to work for state government.  It seemed like it would provide job security.  Have there ever been massive firings?  My income would be comparable to the private sector, but I wouldn't have to manage so hard to achieve it.  I had my family in mind.  9 - 5 Monday through Friday.  Instead, I stayed in the private sector (seems the job I was applying for was no longer civil service, but rather Uncle Joe could be put on the payroll).  I worked 40, 50 even 60 hours a week to make my stores productive.  I trained employees relentlessly.  I expected their productivity.  And they generally liked me for it.  Once, I had to release an employee, because he just couldn't or wouldn't produce.  It was hard for me.  The employee thanked me for at least trying to help.

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Government is not meant to be productive.  It is the least productive segment of our society.  They remove money from the population and spend it to defend our shores, make and fix infrastructure, and yes, help the poor.  That same cash invested in the private sector turns many more times, as companies expand their product line to get more sales.  The profits on those sales is what pays investors, employees, and taxes.  And while I do not wish government to produce profit, there are certainly some things it can do to increase the productivity of its operation.

But the President, or Congress, or State or Local government leaders are least able to find these areas.  But talk to the mid level managers honestly and I'm sure they could point out some savings in every single department.  The old adage of "we have to spend it, or they won't give it to us next year" comes to mind.  If goals were established for the middle managers, and they had the authority to impact day to day operations, do you think they could save the tax payers a few dollars?

Instead our leadership is doubling down on Keynesian economic strategy.  And not caring about jobs.  Instead they are after more benefits, and less liberty by attacking the First and Second Amendment.  Turn loose the private sector.  Some states are turning to precious metals as legal tender.  That is only  feel good measure, it does not address the intrinsic problems with our current economy.

At some point it will be overwhelming, and either we will collapse, or there will be war, either foreign or domestic.  It is inevitable if we continue on this road.  We need answers not rhetoric.

500,000 people gave up.  500,000 people no longer pay taxes.  500,000 additional people receive government benefits.  Sad.

Spend Wisely!

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